18.2 Project brief

Organizational concern: Demand, retention, and program participation appear uneven across locations, but leadership does not know which patterns are reliable or actionable.

Primary decision: How should NVRW prioritize limited service, retention, marketing, and capacity-planning resources?

Population: Members, facility visits, program registrations, and transactions observed from 2022 through 2025, together with synthetic service-area population projections through 2030.

Primary analytical questions:

1. How do visit volume, service mix, program demand, and retention vary across facilities and time?
2. Which information available early in a membership is associated with first-period renewal?
3. What future visit volume would occur if current utilization rates continued as service-area populations changed?
4. How do retention, contribution margin, acquisition cost, and discounting affect estimated CLV by membership type?

Scope exclusions: The project does not estimate the causal effect of a retention intervention, infer motivations not recorded in the data, optimize staffing schedules, or determine whether facility differences are caused by location management.

Success criteria: The project succeeds if it produces validated data, reproducible analysis, a transparent explanation of uncertainty, recommendations connected to evidence, and implementation measures that can determine whether the recommendations work.