11.9 Scenario and sensitivity analysis

A useful projection often includes several plausible assumptions:

• low utilization and moderate population growth;
• current utilization and central population growth;
• higher utilization and stronger growth; and
• an operational scenario representing a proposed change.

Scenarios are not confidence intervals. A confidence or prediction interval is produced by a statistical uncertainty model. A scenario is a selected combination of assumptions.

A result labelled “with recommendation” is not a forecast unless the intervention effect has been estimated from defensible evidence. When the effect is assumed, show the assumption and label the result as a scenario.