18.9 Forecasting and utilization projections

Time-series forecasting and population-utilization projections answer different questions. A time-series model estimates future visits from historical temporal patterns. A utilization projection estimates visits under an assumed future population and utilization rate.

The constant-rate projection uses 2025 visits per 1,000 residents and applies that rate to the projected service-area population. Under this assumption, projected visits rise by approximately 9.3 to 9.5 percent at Downtown, Lakeside, and North Ridge between 2025 and 2030. Westbrook rises by approximately 12.5 percent because its synthetic service-area population grows more quickly.

These are conditional projections. They do not account for facility capacity, changes in pricing, new competitors, program redesign, or successful retention initiatives. A planning presentation should include low, central, and high utilization scenarios rather than one precise number.