3.2 Plan backward from the decision

Begin with the final use of the work. Ask what the audience must understand or decide, then identify the evidence required to support that decision. From there, identify the analyses, data preparation, research, and review work needed to create that evidence.

For example, a recommendation about future service capacity may require:

• a clear definition of capacity and demand;
• historical service volumes;
• a compatible population denominator;
• a defensible utilization rate;
• one or more population projections;
• alternative scenarios;
• operational context; and
• a review of whether the recommendation is feasible.

Working backward prevents the final report from becoming a collection of whatever analyses happened to be completed. It also reveals missing inputs early enough to adjust the question or seek additional evidence.