18.1 Executive summary

North Valley Recreation and Wellness operates four recreation centres and wants to improve retention, allocate program capacity more effectively, and prepare for future demand. The analysis combines synthetic membership, visit, program, transaction, campaign, and population data.

Three conclusions are especially important:

1. Retention differs meaningfully across facilities. First-period retention is 75.8 percent overall, ranging from 69.5 percent at North Ridge to 79.9 percent at Lakeside. The difference is descriptive and should prompt investigation rather than an assumption that facility location causes renewal.
2. Early engagement provides useful predictive information. Visit activity and program participation during the first membership period can help identify members who may benefit from timely support. A prediction model should be used to prioritize a limited outreach list, not to label members permanently or deny service.
3. Demand and value are uneven. Average program fill is approximately 83 percent, while some offerings are nearly full and others remain below 60 percent. Constant-rate population projections imply approximately 9 percent growth in visits at three facilities and 12.5 percent at Westbrook from 2025 to 2030. Estimated four-year CLV also varies by membership type because margin and retention differ.

NVRW should pilot an early-engagement program, review program capacity using repeated demand evidence, and incorporate population-based projections into facility planning. Each action should be evaluated prospectively. None of the observational results establishes the effect of an untested intervention.